Was COP30 a Success? YES… and no!

Was COP30 a Success? YES… and no!

Of all the COPs held so far, this 30th edition was the best in every sense and in every area. It will go down in history! That does not mean that problems did not exist or that it could not have been better.

To understand the magnitude of what it was and its effects for the future, it is necessary to understand that COP30 went far beyond the UN Blue and Green Zones. It embraced the city of Belém with thousands — yes, thousands — of very high-level events led by civil society. After three COPs held in petro-states, which restricted the participation of civil society, Brazil became the stage for the largest pro-sustainability/regeneration event in the world. Culture, so necessary for a transformation of consciousness, was present as never before at any COP. Dubai, for example, used culture as entertainment and distraction.

It was a COP with the energy of the Enchanted Beings of the forest. Curupira as a symbol… nothing could have been better. The magic began from the start. One month before the opening of the COP, the required 132 countries (two-thirds) necessary for it to formally exist had not yet been reached. This had never happened before. More adhesions were achieved, and in the end we had 195 participating countries. The approval of the agenda on the very first day, without any protest, was also the work of the Enchanted Ones. The spirit of solidarity among almost all the countries of the world parading through the 160,000 square meters of the venue is something unforgettable for our minds, hearts, and spirits. Unforgettable!

Congratulations to everyone who worked to make what will undoubtedly be a permanent source of pride for all of us. I enthusiastically applaud all of you, and especially MARINA SILVA, ANDRÉ CORRÊA DO LAGO, and ANA TONI.

I met many dear friends and we shared important moments of COP30 together. And with the dear Antonio Nobre, a scientist who poetically reveals the elephant in the room of COP30, and Sister Jayanti, world leader of the Brahma Kumaris, we held an event in São Paulo the following week: “Post-COP30… and Now What?” It was wonderful, and soon a video edition will be available at cop30brasil.com.

Before detailing the justification for the title, I announce that I will publish the harvest I gathered at cop30.com.br.

Why WAS it a success?

• It popularized the debate on the Climate Emergency throughout Brazil. Conversations in schools, among friends, on the family living-room couch, in churches, on social media, in newspapers, in soccer, at parties, and even in music. Has this ever happened in this country? Not during the pandemic, not during the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, not during the widespread fires, the water shortage in São Paulo, or the drought in the Amazon.
• The issue of Fossil Fuels — which is never truly discussed at COPs — was widely debated, and the Road Map for the Energy Transition was created. In the first week only 10 countries were working on it; in the second, there were already 82. An extraordinary achievement! Of course, there was no way it could be included in the final documents. Those who complained about this did so either out of ignorance or bad faith. COP texts are only approved by consensus — meaning all 195 countries in Belém would have had to approve it for it to become part of the official outcome. Obviously, that had no chance of happening. Despite this, the Brazilian presidency of COP30 announced, on its own initiative, the creation of two processes:

1. A Road Map for a fair, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels;
2. A Road Map to halt and reverse deforestation.
   I give a standing ovation to this achievement and feel saddened by those who led the public to believe it was a failure.

• The Global Ethical Stocktake is a wonderful instrument that is spreading seeds across the continents and will serve as a practical guide for civil society to lead initiatives against the climate emergency. It proposes an ethical and planetary listening process on the climate crisis, bringing together social, cultural, spiritual, business, scientific, and political leaders in six intercontinental dialogues and self-managed events.
• The Global Task Force (Mutirão Global) was a great idea, covering several highly relevant themes. It engaged countries in a Brazilian format of Indigenous origin that will continue to be implemented during our presidency. “Mutirão” is a word of Indigenous origin, from the Tupi-Guarani term “motirõ” or “mutyrõ” and means “collective work, a gathering for harvest or joint labor.” The Brazilian government adopted the expression Global Climate Task Force (Mutirão Global pelo Clima) to define the first climate conference in the Amazon.
• COP30 embraced themes that had not been present in previous COPs and that, in this edition, gained strong protagonism: Health, Children, Science, among many others, which inaugurated their official participation in the UN Blue Zone.
• Important participation by the guardians of the forests: Indigenous peoples, hundreds of ethnic groups, quilombolas, and riverine communities. Even knowing they could have been more numerous, Blue Zone accreditation broke records, which illuminated a record participation in the negotiation and decision-making tables.
• The Tropical Forests Forever Fund (TFFF).
• An absolute record of civil society participation. The most generative spaces of COP30 were spread throughout Belém. There were thousands of events, roundtables, workshops, exhibitions, documentaries, lectures, concerts, and a great deal of Culture. Just to mention a few:

Aldeia COP
Amazon Climate HUB — Arayara
Barco Cultural Banzeiro da Esperança — Virada Sustentável and FAS
Barqueta dos Povos
Bienal Indígena — Escola da Cidade
Casa Combio
Casa Cubo
Casa das ONGs — Abong
Casa das Soluções
Casa do Jornalismo Socioambiental
Casa do Sul Global
Casa Escolhas — Instituto Escolhas
Casa FGV
Casa Iacitatá
Casa IDS
Casa Ipê
Casa Maraká
Casa Mata Atlântica
Casa Museu Emílio Goeldi
Casa Niaré
Casa Ninja
Casa Ninja Amazônia
Casa ONU
Casa Vozes do Oceano
Central da COP — Observatório do Clima
Cidade das Juventudes
Climate Action House
Cúpula dos Povos
Embaixada dos Povos
Espaço Chico Mendes
EY House
FreeZone Cultural
ImpactHub Belém
LAClima
Social Innovation House
Sumaúma
Vozes do Planeta
WCF — Casa COP | Casa Dourada
WWF House

What was NOT a success

• The first negative issue applies to all COPs. They give the impression that the world is discussing and solving these crucial issues for the continuity of our existence. There is an illusion that the climate emergency is being addressed — that something is being done. This delays civil society’s assumption of leadership in this movement. At COP30, despite the massive civil society participation, we still experience this illusory effect.
• Much of the media focused on the fire incident, hotel prices, the price of a Brazilian chicken croquette, the invasion of the Blue Zone by a few dozen people, the statement of the German prime minister, among other things. For readers who were not living COP30, this all seemed relevant… IT WAS NOT! It would be the same as if, in a World Cup final, the media focused on a dog that accidentally entered the field, the price of the flags sold to fans, the birthday of the mother of a substitute player, a firecracker that exploded on the pitch, or a few fans invading the VIP seats. Anyone used to soccer would be shocked by this kind of coverage. Many of us who know the Climate Conferences cannot understand what leads journalists to set aside the essence of what is happening across all of Belém to report these minor incidents. Each of them negatively affected COP30, but they were so small in relation to the whole that they became irrelevant. As in the World Cup final example, imagine failing to report the match highlights, the final score, who scored the goals, the audience in the stadium, and the players’ and coaches’ interviews.
• The 1,600 (identified) lobbyists from the oil industry who infiltrated to promote discord and ensure that any attempt to free ourselves from fossil dependence would not be addressed. It is believed that the real number is much higher, not to mention those from the chemical industry, animal protein sector, agribusiness, fashion, and other entities that rely on the industry of ignorance (agnotology) to divert attention.
• The participation and posture of some scientists in the Science Pavilion. These are renowned scientists who could have been part of the Global Task Force instead of using a megaphone to declare that everything is wrong and that science is being betrayed. Science, by definition, is knowledge in motion. There is no untouchable truth in science. Hiding behind the shield of science to promote one’s own view and oneself does not make these professionals heralds of truth. The scientist who presides over the Scientific Council of COP30 said in an interview to Folha de São Paulo (10/24): “COP30 should devote 90% of negotiations to the transition away from fossil fuels and only 10% to forests.” What kind of science is that? This statement is so absurd that I will not even comment on it. In fact, these same scientists have already had their blind spots questioned and revised — such as the savannization of the Amazon Forest, which today is scientifically known to be moving toward desertification, not savannization. The same applies to the flying rivers (rios voadores), which today are widely accepted and were only recently accepted by these scientists. Now we have the issue of the hydrological cycle (biotic pump), which has not been taken into account in forest regeneration calculations. In other words, they are people like us and could act collaboratively instead of merely waiting for different results from the same format that has existed for 31 years. Einstein had a phrase about this: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Below is the response published to the draft text of the penultimate day:

Scientists’ response to the Friday Task Force text, November 21
“Despite a large number of countries coming together around road maps to end dependence on fossil fuels and deforestation — and despite the momentum given by the President of Brazil — the words ‘fossil fuels’ are completely absent from the latest text. This is a betrayal of science and of people, especially the most vulnerable, and is entirely inconsistent with the reaffirmed objectives of limiting warming to 1.5°C and with the near exhaustion of the carbon budget. It is impossible to limit warming to levels that protect people and life without phasing out fossil fuels and ending deforestation. In these final hours, negotiators must work together to restore the road maps into the text for a safer and more prosperous future. Science is here to help.”

Carlos Nobre — Science Panel of the Amazon
Fatima Denton — United Nations University
Johan Rockström — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Marina Hirota — Instituto Serrapilheira
Paulo Artaxo — University of São Paulo
Piers Forster — University of Leeds
Thelma Krug — President of the Scientific Council of COP30

Text written as an outburst on the last day of COP30

“COP30 counts on the Enchanted Ones despite everything. The glass is half full — do not believe the pessimists on duty. As long as we can see both sides of the glass, that is good. The moment one says the glass is empty — whether in the name of science, religion, human rights, planetary rights, right of reply, rejoinder, or any other biased subterfuge — I feel second-hand embarrassment. Let us recognize that the glass is half full, for the first time in 31 years of COPs. Congratulations to those who worked to make this COP, probably, the best of all. Not because of competition with others, but because of the reward of the path that was traveled!”